Four reasons why it’s so unlikely Sanders will win the Democratic nomination

Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Behind by more than 300 pledged delegates* since the March 15 primaries, the Sanders campaign has been promoting the idea that Democrats have just finished the “first half” of the nomination fight and the next half is much, much better for them. This, they contend, gives them a credible path to the nomination. It’s reasonable […]

You probably never heard of this Democratic delegate selection rule but it matters

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If you’re following the presidential nomination contests, you very well might know these things about the delegate selection process: Only Democrats have superdelegates. Republicans do not. Democrats’ superdelegates have never decided who is the nominee. Since their creation, the nominee has been the person who won the most pledged delegates (i.e., those awarded via primaries […]

Is it time to ditch Maine’s presidential caucuses?

Last weekend Maine saw yuuuge turnout in the Republican and Democratic presidential caucuses — a yuuuge turnout for caucuses, that is. Sen. Ted Cruz scored a surprise win, as he beat Gov. Paul LePage’s preferred candidate, Donald Trump. With his very strong showing, Sen. Bernie Sanders added to his wins in mostly white states. This […]

Who do pundits think will win the Maine caucuses?

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Before anyone shows up to caucus this weekend in Maine, pundits will have made their predictions. There hasn’t been any recent public polling, so they’re using all sorts of evidence and their judgment. As always, it’s up to the people who show up who determine what really happens. But what do pundits think and why? […]

Why do Democrats have superdelegates? Short, medium and long explanations

George McGovern (D-SD) and 1972 Democratic Party nominee for president

As presidential primaries and caucuses have started up, people are again paying attention to the Democratic Party’s use of superdelegates, individuals not picked through a primary or caucus who will attend the national convention and vote for a nominee. Contrary to a number of press reports, those individuals haven’t been “assigned” after any particular primary […]

‘The past isn’t dead. It isn’t even past.’ Welcome to the 2016 election.

No two times or elections are identical. But American pasts loom large as the 2016 presidential election takes shape. On the Democratic side, the contrast between Progressives and Populists is on full display. The Republican side is combining the flavor of Dixiecrats and George Wallace with opposition to the policies of the most accomplished Democratic […]

The media narrative that Clinton garners less enthusiasm is wrong

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Since Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders emerged as a candidate who could generate big crowds, the media narrative has been that his supporters are more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton’s. Reading the recent polls suggests that’s not true. You can see this in three different sorts of polls: ones that ask about people’s commitment to their candidate, […]