Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee for president. Before the Indiana primary, for Bernie Sanders to tie among pledged delegates awarded from primaries and caucuses, he has to win everywhere by an average of 30 percentage points. Every time Sanders underperforms, he needs even bigger wins to get most pledged delegates. That’s because […]
Political pundits and junkies alike thrill to the prospect of contested conventions, with multiple votes needed to pick a nominee. And, while Senator Bernie Sanders says this is going to happen at the Democratic National Convention, there’s no way it can. Sanders hangs his claim on defining “contested convention” in a way it never has […]
Democrats are again discussing the rules for choosing delegates to their national party convention. It used to be that primaries and caucuses didn’t choose many delegates but that changed for the 1972 nomination. Starting then, the vast majority of delegates came from the decisions of caucus goers and primary voters. Lots of other things changed […]
As the New York race makes clear, neither Hillary Clinton nor Bernie Sanders has the Obama coalition of young voters and black and Latino voters.
Next week there arrives a clarifying moment for the Democratic nomination fight. All current polling shows Clinton over 50%, with an average 14 point lead over Sanders. The first fact is more important, since it’s harder to move voters already with a candidate. Sanders continues to do poorly with some significant voting blocs.The NBC/Wall St./Marist […]
The Wisconsin primary is now in the books, with Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Bernie Sanders winning with similar margins of 12-13 percentage points. Voter id in Wisconsin As I’ve discussed, the Wisconsin primary featured an onerous voter id law that analysts believed would most affect elderly and disabled people, students and black voters. Turnout […]
Voter restrictions around the country, passed by Republicans though voting fraud was virtually nonexistent, will definitely benefit Republicans in the general election.
Trump’s people have stooped to blackmail, and this suggests how a President Trump would behave toward his political opponents.
Behind by more than 300 pledged delegates* since the March 15 primaries, the Sanders campaign has been promoting the idea that Democrats have just finished the “first half” of the nomination fight and the next half is much, much better for them. This, they contend, gives them a credible path to the nomination. It’s reasonable […]
If you’re following the presidential nomination contests, you very well might know these things about the delegate selection process: Only Democrats have superdelegates. Republicans do not. Democrats’ superdelegates have never decided who is the nominee. Since their creation, the nominee has been the person who won the most pledged delegates (i.e., those awarded via primaries […]