Will Obamacare cost more or less than first estimated?

Obamacare critics have made all sort of fiscal claims about the costs associated with the Affordable Care Act.

But usually the claims come down to one basic one, that the law is purportedly costing more than expected.

However, just like an argument that Gov. LePage made recently in turning down Medicaid expansion (he said the deficit is rising but the deficit is now at a 14 year low), that’s simply not true.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, Obamacare costs are significantly less than first projected.

The CBO’s new estimate is that the costs over a ten year period will be $104 billion dollars less than first projected.

One reason is that premiums, which are subsidized under the ACA, have been and are expected to continue to be less than projected. Remember that the next time you hear some politician assert that premiums are soaring.

CBO: Updated Estimates  of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage  Provisions of the  Affordable Care Act,  April 2014

CBO: Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act April 2014

As the above chart from the report shows, the initial estimate (on the dotted line) was higher than the May 2013 revision, but even that was higher than this latest estimate.

You can read the whole report yourself. Just follow this link.

Amy Fried

About Amy Fried

Amy Fried loves Maine's sense of community and the wonderful mix of culture and outdoor recreation. She loves politics in three ways: as an analytical political scientist, a devoted political junkie and a citizen who believes politics matters for people's lives.